Graphite, Sovereignty and Subversion: The Role of Global Powers in Madagascar's Destabilization

Abstract

Madagascar, the world's fourth-largest island, occupies a paradoxical position in the global order. Ecologically, it is a living laboratory of evolution, home to approximately 92% endemic flora and fauna. Economically, it sits atop one of the most diverse and underexploited mineral endowments in the Southern Hemisphere, including vast deposits of natural graphite, nickel, cobalt, and ilmenite. Geopolitically, it commands the western approaches of the Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel. This paper investigates the October 2025 military intervention, following widespread youth-led protests against President Andry Rajoelina's government, and situates this crisis within the framework of neo-mercantilist geopolitics in the Indian Ocean. While internal factors—including a 90% poverty rate, chronic famine (Kere) in the southern provinces, and elite corruption—served as proximate catalysts, the perpetuation of instability reflects a deliberate architecture of foreign interference by France, the United States, and China. Drawing upon historical analysis of Madagascar's coup cycles (1972, 2002, 2009, 2025), critical geopolitical theory, and the political economy of extractive industries, this paper exposes the mechanisms through which global powers—employing Francafrique networks, IRA-driven mineral diplomacy, information operations, and intelligence asset management—have leveraged Madagascar's governance fragility to secure preferential access to its resource endowments. The paper concludes that enduring sovereignty requires a Pan-African resource governance framework and delinkage of mineral access from foreign political patronage.