Analyzing U.S. and French Influence in Madagascar's Governance Crisis: Strategic Minerals, Manufactured Instability, and the Battle for the Indian Ocean Rim

Abstract

Madagascar's October 2025 military transition—catalyzed by youth-led protests against the Rajoelina administration—cannot be adequately understood through the lens of domestic politics alone. This paper applies a neo-mercantilist geopolitical framework to argue that the island nation's recurring governance crises are structurally embedded within great-power competition for its vast deposits of graphite, nickel, cobalt, and ilmenite, as well as its strategic position astride the Mozambique Channel. Drawing on historical precedent from the 2009 coup, empirical data on foreign direct investment patterns, critical minerals supply chain analysis, and documented influence operations, this study systematically examines the roles of France, the United States, and China in shaping—and exploiting—Madagascar's political instability. The findings reveal that while the 2025 transition was internally generated by legitimate socio-economic grievances (including a 78% poverty rate and chronic famine in the south), external actors engaged in what this paper terms 'extractive diplomacy': the opportunistic leveraging of instability to secure preferential resource access. France's Françafrique networks, U.S. intelligence interests in the Mozambique Channel, and Chinese state-enterprise mineral acquisitions represent competing but mutually reinforcing vectors of interference. The paper concludes that Madagascar's trajectory reflects the broader paradox of resource-rich, governance-poor states in the 21st century and advocates for a Pan-African sovereign wealth framework as a structural remedy.